From Market Opportunity to Company Capture
A large market is only valuable if the company can realistically convert opportunity into sales.
Historical capture analysis (2025)
Observed penetration = brand volume ÷ indicative strong-beer pool. Historical ratios — not transferable forecasts.
| Market | 8.6 HL | Category HL | Strong pool HL | Penetration | Dist. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 347,631 | 22,060,000 | 9,287,260 | 3.74% | 73% |
| Italy | 58,355 | 21,776,000 | 1,393,664 | 4.19% | 49% |
| Canada | 12,790 | 19,158,000 | 766,320 | 1.67% | 31% |
| Spain | 6,302 | 44,885,000 | 3,186,835 | 0.20% | 20% |
| Netherlands | 30,845 | 11,578,000 | 1,389,360 | 2.22% | — |
| Cuba | 15,621 | 3,344,000 | 30,096 | 51.90% | — |
| Thailand | 8,934 | 19,577,000 | 58,731 | 15.21% | — |
| Belgium | 3,501 | 6,646,000 | 1,688,084 | 0.21% | — |
| South Korea | 587 | 23,162,000 | 23,162 | 2.53% | — |
| Vietnam | 876 | 45,855,000 | 45,855 | 1.91% | — |
Brand-volume-only markets (no external segment data): Mali 21,344 HL · Uganda 14,724 HL · Morocco 7,625 HL · Malta 7,167 HL. Where pools are tiny (Cuba, Thailand), 8.6 likely sells beyond the strong-beer proxy, inflating ratios.
Distribution vs. brand volume
Only four 2025 observations available.
No distribution-response coefficient is fitted.
Capture assumptions — Philippines
No company history — capture assessment pending.
Predictive capture model
Hierarchical / mixed-effects design with regularised challenger; validated by holding out entire markets.
Required columns: market, year, volume. Optional numeric predictors (e.g. tenure, distribution, relative_price). Data stay in this browser.
The full 33-market panel is not bundled with this prototype. No coefficients, accuracy or intervals are shown.