Module 4 · Analytical AI · A3
Commercial Scenario Simulator
Understand the economics of commercial choices before committing resources.
Inputs (company net economics)
Managerial assumption Default inputs are illustrative placeholders — replace with company figures.
Baseline contribution / HL
€50.00
Proposed contribution / HL
€40.00
Break-even volume
12,500 HL
Required volume uplift
25.0%
Required, NOT predicted
Contribution comparison
Required break-even volume: 12,500 HL vs. baseline 10,000 HL and assumed 10,000 HL.
Required volume uplift is NOT a predicted volume uplift.
Sensitivity: proposed NSP vs. baseline
Contribution-drop rule of thumb
| Contribution/HL falls by | Required uplift |
|---|---|
| 5% | 5.3% |
| 10% | 11.1% |
| 15% | 17.6% |
| 20% | 25.0% |
| 25% | 33.3% |
Uplift = 1 ÷ (1 − drop) − 1, holding fixed costs constant.